Quote #8126

Added on 12th Dec 2015.

About Speculative Grade (Junk) Bonds Bonds rated 'BB' or lower. Known as a "high-yield" or "speculative" or "junk" bonds.<br/><br/>Please login. Quantitative information is available (for free) after you have agreed to the terms and conditions and disclaimers., Carl Icahn <div style='max-width: 180px; margin-left: 2px; margin-bottom: 6px;'><b>Carl Icahn: </b>Activist investor. He is the majority shareholder of Icahn Enterprises.</div><div style='max-width: 180px; word-wrap: break-word;'>Please login. Quantitative information is available (for free) after you have agreed to the terms and conditions and disclaimers.</div> said: “The high-yield market is just a keg of dynamite that sooner or later will blow up” in www.cnbc.com on 11th Dec 2015

ASSESSMENT

Quantification #1:    Speculative Grade (Junk) Bonds    [Short]

This topic inherits the market data of topic US:JNK.

The chart below shows the increase of a long investment of one dollar in the topic or ultimate inherited topic.


Volatility estimates (as at the stated date):
  standard deviation of the continuously compounded daily proportional returns of "primary":N/A   (variance: N/A)
  standard deviation of the continuously compounded daily proportional returns of the S&P 500:  N/A   (variance: N/A)
Note: returns are per calander day, not per trading day.
Assessment Values:
  Topic standard deviation divided by S&P 500 total return index standard deviation. Relative Risk: N/A
  Current price divided by price at prediction date. Proportional Change In Timeseries Value: N/A
  The proportion of the time kernel that has been assessed. Time Kernel Proportion: N/A
  A measure designed for comparing prediction results in a statistically fair way. Assuming validity of the market model, the standardized scores of a set of random predictions will be distributed about 0 with a standard deviation 1. Standardized Score: N/A
  Annualised return in excess of risk free rate, adjusted for risk of the topic. Equivalent to an annualized version of Standardized Score, this is perhaps the best measure of the performance of a prediction, with the caveat that reliability is related to time frame length. Extreme values are likely for short term (or partially assessed) predictions, representing an extrapolation from limited data. RAAER (Risk Adjusted Annualized Excess Return):   N/A
  Interpreting RAAER as an estimate of future performance, this is the standard error according to the market model. RAAER Standard Error: N/A
  Total compounded return in excess of risk free rate, adjusted for risk of the topic. RAER (Risk Adjusted Excess Return): N/A
  Total compounded return in excess of risk free rate. ER (Excess Return): N/A
  Total compounded return. R (Return): N/A
  RAAER calculated at current date instead of averaged over time kernel. RAAER [Last Date Only]: N/A
  The time kernel approach simulates a market position adopted at the prediction time and gradually unwound over time. This is a calculation of the RAAER assuming that the remaining position is liquidated at the current date; it is an average of return and return at last date only, weighted according the time kernel proportion. RAAER [If Liquidated]: N/A
  R calculated at current date instead of averaged over time kernel. R [Last Day Only]: N/A
  The time kernel approach simulates a market position adopted at the prediction time and gradually unwound over time. This is a calculation of R assuming that the remaining position is liquidated at the current date; it is an average of return and return at last date only, weighted according the time kernel proportion. R [If Liquidated]: N/A

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Current Verification Status: Accepted
Verification History
Date   Action   Trust Level   User
2015-12-12 Accept 20 matt
2015-12-12 Create - matt