Quote #8139

Added on 17th May 2016.

About S&P 500 Capitalization-weighted index of the prices of 500 large-cap common stocks in the United States.<br/><br/>Please login. Quantitative information is available (for free) after you have agreed to the terms and conditions and disclaimers., Mark Spitznagel <div style='max-width: 180px; margin-left: 2px; margin-bottom: 6px;'><b>Mark Spitznagel: </b>Founder, owner, and Chief Investment Officer of Universa Investments, L.P.</div><div style='max-width: 180px; word-wrap: break-word;'>Please login. Quantitative information is available (for free) after you have agreed to the terms and conditions and disclaimers.</div> said: “This is the greatest monetary experiment in history. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable.” in www.zerohedge.com on 16th May 2016

ASSESSMENT

Quantification #1:    S&P 500    [Short]

This topic inherits the market data of topic US:SPY.

The chart below shows the increase of a long investment of one dollar in the topic or ultimate inherited topic.


Volatility estimates (as at the stated date):
  standard deviation of the continuously compounded daily proportional returns of "primary":N/A   (variance: N/A)
  standard deviation of the continuously compounded daily proportional returns of the S&P 500:  N/A   (variance: N/A)
Note: returns are per calander day, not per trading day.
Assessment Values:
  Topic standard deviation divided by S&P 500 total return index standard deviation. Relative Risk: N/A
  Current price divided by price at prediction date. Proportional Change In Timeseries Value: N/A
  The proportion of the time kernel that has been assessed. Time Kernel Proportion: N/A
  A measure designed for comparing prediction results in a statistically fair way. Assuming validity of the market model, the standardized scores of a set of random predictions will be distributed about 0 with a standard deviation 1. Standardized Score: N/A
  Annualised return in excess of risk free rate, adjusted for risk of the topic. Equivalent to an annualized version of Standardized Score, this is perhaps the best measure of the performance of a prediction, with the caveat that reliability is related to time frame length. Extreme values are likely for short term (or partially assessed) predictions, representing an extrapolation from limited data. RAAER (Risk Adjusted Annualized Excess Return):   N/A
  Interpreting RAAER as an estimate of future performance, this is the standard error according to the market model. RAAER Standard Error: N/A
  Total compounded return in excess of risk free rate, adjusted for risk of the topic. RAER (Risk Adjusted Excess Return): N/A
  Total compounded return in excess of risk free rate. ER (Excess Return): N/A
  Total compounded return. R (Return): N/A
  RAAER calculated at current date instead of averaged over time kernel. RAAER [Last Date Only]: N/A
  The time kernel approach simulates a market position adopted at the prediction time and gradually unwound over time. This is a calculation of the RAAER assuming that the remaining position is liquidated at the current date; it is an average of return and return at last date only, weighted according the time kernel proportion. RAAER [If Liquidated]: N/A
  R calculated at current date instead of averaged over time kernel. R [Last Day Only]: N/A
  The time kernel approach simulates a market position adopted at the prediction time and gradually unwound over time. This is a calculation of R assuming that the remaining position is liquidated at the current date; it is an average of return and return at last date only, weighted according the time kernel proportion. R [If Liquidated]: N/A

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Current Verification Status: Accepted
Verification History
Date   Action   Trust Level   User
2016-05-17 Accept 20 matt
2016-05-17 Create - matt